Predicted 2010 NL East Finish: 4th
- Reyes ss
- Castillo 2b
- Wright 3b
- Bay lf
- Francoeur rf
- Jacobs 1b
- Pagan cf
- Barajas c
- Santana (LH)
- Perez (LH)
- Blanco c
- Cora if
- Tatis ut
- Matthews Jr. of
- Catalanotto 1b/of
- Feliciano (LH)
- Rodriguez (closer)
- Beltran cf
Catcher: Here’s a crowded group. Josh Thole is the catcher of the future and has already had success in limited time in the Bigs, so why did the Mets feel the need to bring four below-average catchers to camp? Henry Blanco is a defensive whiz and has a cannon for an arm so that addition makes sense. Coste is old and didn’t hit well last year, but he was given a spot on the 40-man roster. Rod Barajas was given a Major League deal and the starting job after posting a .226 AVG and a .258 OBP in 125 games. His 19 homers and 71 RBIs were solid but the younger and cheaper Omir Santos could definitely do that with the same playing time. Instead of improving their catching situation, they blocked prospects in a division they aren’t going to win.
Infield: David Wright is a great third baseman who will be made even better with a full season from shortstop Jose Reyes. Reyes can be a five-tool threat that needs to rebound for the Mets to even approach .500 this year. Luis Castillo had a .387 OBP in a bad lineup and will score more runs with Jason Bay around. First base will be a problem again this year. Daniel Murphy has options left and will be sent down if Mike Jacobs wins the job. Fernando Tatis will get at-bats there as well while the Mets wait for prospect Ike Davis to be Major League ready.
Outfield: The Mets signed Jason Bay to bring some power to the lineup and he did just that with the Red Sox in 2009 (36 homers and 119 RBIs). Francoeur did much better after being traded to the Mets. He needs to produce or the team will let him go in favor of prospect Fernando Martinez. With Carlos Beltran out to start the year, Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr. will battle for time in center field. Matthews is coming off one of his worst years as a pro and Pagan is coming off his best. Either way, the lineup will look much better when Beltran is healthy.
Rotation: After Johan Santana the rotation is one of the worst in baseball. John Maine and Mike Pelfrey each took a step backwards during the ’09 campaign. Oliver Perez took his big contract and pitched in 14 games with a dismal 6.82 ERA. The problem for the Mets is that these guys aren’t even facing any legitimate competition. Kelvim Escobar has started but was signed with the intention to use him in relief. Pat Misch is a lefty that is out of options and did OK in 26 games last year. Fernando Nieve is intriguing because he is also out of options and displayed a 2.95 ERA in 8 games with the Mets last year. Jon Niese is another competitor for the rotation.
Bullpen: This will be the strong point for the team in 2010. Ryota Igarashi is battling for the setup role after a solid career in Japan. Sean Green may be the favorite for the setup spot after 79 strong innings in 2009. Pedro Feliciano has been a reliable lefty specialist and is not a health concern, which is hard to say for most of these guys. Bobby Parnell brings excitement to the bullpen and a full season in a consistent role could help his progression. K-Rod came back down to earth after inking a huge deal last off-season but he is still a great closer.
2010: 2009 was a lost season after all of the injuries to many of their game-changers. Santana and Reyes seem to be good to go but their health won’t be enough to make the Mets contenders in a deep division. Mets management has been long-scrutinized and this past off-season won’t make that go away. The team missed out on targets John Lackey, Bengie Molina, and Orlando Hudson. GM Omar Minaya seemingly forgot about upgrading the horrible rotation. The team is not built for the dimensions of their stadium and that’s not going to help. It will be a long 2010 for Mets fans during which guys like Luis Castillo, Rod Barajas, Jeff Francoeur, Mike Jacobs, Oliver Perez, John Maine, and some relievers will all be let go one way or another.
Today the New York Mets signed Jason Bay to a four year deal with a reportedly player-friendly vesting option for the fifth year. Jason Bay will be locked in for the left field job. Carlos Beltran will again be the center fielder. These two are obvious given their production and they will hold down the four and five spots in the lineup.
Right field is not as settled however. Jeff Francoeur was brought in last year and did much better for the Mets than he had done for the Braves over the previous 3 months. Francoeur’s defense was always strong, especially the arm strength, but his offensive approach lacks patience as shown by his .309 OBP of 2009. His average did jump after a first half .250 to a second half .311. He slugged very well for the Mets too.
Angel Pagan was another outfielder who performed above expectations in the second half for New York. Pagan played all three outfield spots while filling in due to injuries. Pagan led off frequently in the season’s last two months, leading to his 54 runs in only 343 at-bats. He’s a switch hitter who took advantage of the huge gaps at Citi Field posting 11 triples which was the third most in the majors (and he had 190 less ABs than second place).
The last option has the most potential but least major league success. Fernando Martinez is the club’s top prospect but struggled in his debut last year. Martinez has time to grow as he is only 21. He is probably suited best for left field but will transition fine to right if needed as he is a great athlete.
I predict that Jeff Francoeur starts the year as the right fielder with Pagan still earning plenty of at-bats. Pagan will also get playing time in left to spell Bay late in games because of Bay’s poor fielding. Fernando Martinez, aka F-Mart, will have to start the year in AAA to get more playing time. The Mets are infamous for their bad luck and if that injury bug strikes again, Martinez will be the first to get called up.
After the Yankees well-known spending spree of a year ago, the Red Sox are doing their best to keep pace. They’ve already acquired outfielders Mike Cameron and Jeremy Hermida, ace pitcher John Lackey, and shortstop Marco Scutaro. The Sox re-upped catchers Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez and knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield. They are nearing a deal to send third basemen Mike Lowell to Texas for catching prospect Max Ramirez.
There has been rumors that Boston is enamored by free agent third basemen Adrian Beltre to fill the third base spot potentially vacated by Lowell but Kevin Youkilis could also fill that spot. The Beltre rumors were moved to the backseat today as the Adrian Gonzalez rumors sped back up and a deal seems very likely, in my opinion. The Red Sox have the prospects to bring Gonzalez in, but do they want to give up that much? A deal would potentially include center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury and/or starter Clay Buchholz along with more prospects. That seems like a good start to me as the Padres would get young major league ready players in return.
But it doesn’t stop there. The Red Sox have notified Jeremy Hermida that he would be traded if Jason Bay was resigned. I’ll assume the same would happen if Matt Holliday were brought in but we’ll stick with Bay for now. The Red Sox are instant AL favorites if they bring in Adrian Gonzalez, not to mention Jason Bay.
A rotation containg three aces (Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Jon Lester) and a solid bullpen may potentially be supported by quite a bit of power:
- Pedroia 2b
- Youkilis 3b
- Gonzalez 1b
- Martinez c
- Ortiz dh
- Bay lf
- Drew rf
- Cameron cf
- Scutaro ss
The frequency and amount of posts should pick back up in 5-7 days as I am focusing on finals during the busiest time of the year for academics.
With the free agency period off to a frustratingly slow start, I’ve decided to post my synopsis of the top free agents in this year’s market. Also listed are some potential destinations.
1. Matt Holliday OF– Great all-around hitter who rebounded well in St. Louis after his short stay in the AL. He is the premier offensive player in this year’s class and a legitimate 3-hitter for any contender. His combination of power, speed, and competitiveness will land him the biggest contract of all free agents in the coming months. Yankees, Mets, Red Sox
2. John Lackey SP– Despite a couple recent injuries, Lackey’s leadership and determination are great intangibles. He consistently puts his team in the spot to win games and will be the ace anywhere he goes, besides the Yankees… Yankees, Brewers, Angels
3. Jason Bay OF– Bay has taken some hits lately for his defense and even criticism for rejecting the Red Sox initial offer of 4 years/$60MM. Bay, however, was able to post great HR and RBI numbers and that’s what gets free agents paid. Bay is a great number two option to Holliday. Red Sox, Mets, Giants
4. Chone Figgins 3B/UT– After Chone struggled mightly in the playoffs, he is on a mission to get back in the post-season and earn another ring. Figgins will go to a winner where he can play third base, his best position. Many teams have been rumored to the speedy utility man for many different positions, though the White Sox have said they’re already out of the hunt due to the price. Angels, Phillies, Mariners
5. Aroldis Chapman LHP– Chapman is a lefty phenom who defected from Cuba who just changed his agency. He has great stuff and a fastball that approaches 100mph. Nearly every team has some level of interest in his rare skills set. He may spend some time in the minors, but will still earn a great paycheck. I could see Chapman as the Dodgers’ single big move this off-season if they’re unable to attain Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers
6. Mike Gonzalez LHP/Rafael Soriano RHP– This pair of relievers come from the same bullpen and can both setup or close. Their electrifying stuff will earn them both a huge (and probably over-priced) payday. My guess is that both will have a chance to close. Phillies, Braves, Tigers
7. Orlando Hudson 2B– This perennial gold glover is a switch hitter with pop and speed. He can work an at-bat and is a great clubhouse guy. The only thing going against Hudson is his injury plagued second-half with the Dodgers, which will keep him affordable like this time last year. Mets, Nationals, Twins
8. Joel Piniero SP– I like Piniero. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan once again worked his magic with Piniero. Piniero always had talent and he finally turned the corner. In a relatively weak market for starting pitchers, Piniero comes in as the number two. Mets, Cardinals, Brewers
9. Mark DeRosa 3B/UT– Mark DeRosa built his great reputation off a couple solid years with the Cubs. His value diminished a bit with a wrist injury which required surgery after the season and a rough stay with the Cards where his OBP dropped significantly. DeRosa though, is a good option for most teams as he can play a very formidable second and third along with first and the corner outfield spots. Even though the Cubs fans love this guy, they will not reunite on the Northside. Phillies, Cardinals, Twins
10. Bengie Molina C– In a very thin offering of catchers this year, Molina provides a veteran presence with a solid bat. He has hit cleanup or fifth many times in the past few years with the Giants. Mets, Brewers, Mariners
11. Jason Marquis SP– Marquis’ sinker worked well for him in Colorado where he flourished for the first half, but then dropped off. He is durable and an innings eater, and provides some offense from the pitcher’s spot for what it’s worth. Keep in mind his 10 year streak of making the playoffs. Mets, Cardinals, Rockies
12. Johnny Damon/Hideki Matsui OF/DH– Pros: came up huge in the post-season. Cons: age and declining overall skills. These two Yankees favorites would both love to be back in the Bronx but the Yankees are looking for more athleticism in LF and would rather commit one year too few than one year too many. White Sox, Yankees, Mariners
13. Rich Harden SP– Harden would like to be back in Chicago’s rotation but I’m not sure he proved his health enough to be warranted a raise in the windy city. He has an upper 90s fastball and a nice changeup/sinker that makes him perhaps the biggest risk/reward pitcher this year. It’s very conceivable Boston picks him up to be another reclamation project similar to Paul Byrd, John Smoltz, and Brad Penny of late. Red Sox, Cubs, Mets
14. Adrian Beltre 3B– Beltre is still a great defender and a power threat. His value is nowhere near it was the last time he hit market and cashed in, but he will still be coveted with lots of vacancies at the hot corner this year. Phillies, Orioles, Twins
15. Nick Johnson 1B– Johnson is known for his injuries and his above average OBP. He improved that OBP with his second half Marlins stint in which he posted a .477 OBP. This off-season he will earn himself a multiyear deal to provide the steady production people have grown accustomed to. Mets, Giants, White Sox
- Orlando Cabrera SS
- Russell Branyan 1B
- Miguel Tejada SS/3B
- Marlon Byrd OF
- Vladimir Guerrero DH/RF
- Adam LaRoche 1B
- Fernando Rodney RP
- Andy Pettitte SP (would be higher on the list, but the Yankees are the only destination)